Sunday, February 09, 2020

Second Guessing

It's that dreaded time of year. The one where Morty sees an 'award post' and just hits 'back' on his browser tab.

I get it. This isn't for everyone, though the irony is, Mort has seen most of these movies and probably has a better insight than say................Mike.....who has seen probably none of these movies.

Actually, he told me he saw one, though I now do not remember which one.

Anyways, this is our 9th Annual Academy Award Guessing Game®


I'd have to go back to see who is winning this so-called race, but I'm thinking I won't like the answer - so I'll just live, head buried in the sand, which resides in the land of MakeBelieve.

I probably say this every year, but this year seems the hardest. Especially in a few categories. Acting, not so much. It's not that I agree about the probable winners, but I know the writing on the wall when I see it. No, I'm stymied at best picture and director.  Stupid Parasite, making this more complicated than I anticipated.

That said, if Mike is true to his word (and I think we all know he's not), I could run away with this thing.

By all accounts, the four major acting (well, I guess that would be all of them) awards are a given. I don't expect Mike's choices on these to be different than mine. But then, things get tricky.....not for everything (I think), but enough that it could cost me............or him.

Let's have at it, shall we?

Performance by an actor in a leading role nominees: Antonio Banderas in PAIN AND GLORY Leonardo DiCaprio in ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Adam Driver in MARRIAGE STORY Joaquin Phoenix in JOKER Jonathan Pryce in THE TWO POPES

It should be Banderas, but this isn't going to go his way tonight. Should I be wrong and lose this contest due to it, I would be fine with the outcome - Antonio's and mine. I think we can all agree to be happy that Adam Sandler doesn't appear anywhere on this list. 

Performance by an actor in a supporting role nominees: Tom Hanks in A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD Anthony Hopkins in THE TWO POPES Al Pacino in THE IRISHMAN Joe Pesci in THE IRISHMAN Brad Pitt in ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD

I'm not happy with any of these options - other than maybe Hopkins, whom I think should win. But it looks like it will be Pitt. Only two people I know liked his movie, but that's still two more than who saw Hanks play Rodgers 

Performance by an actress in a leading role nominees: Cynthia Erivo in HARRIET Scarlett Johansson in MARRIAGE STORY Saoirse Ronan in LITTLE WOMEN Charlize Theron in BOMBSHELL Renée Zellweger in JUDY

Honestly, the worst category of the evening - and I'm throwing hair and make-up in there. They had some exclusions - no, not you JLo(w) - but they might just give it to Johansson. The academy loves loves loves portrayals of dead celebrities - I mean, how else do you explain Jamie Foxx having one?  But I really don't want it to be Zellweger, but you know it's gonna be. 

Performance by an actress in a supporting role nominees: Kathy Bates in RICHARD JEWELL Laura Dern in MARRIAGE STORY Scarlett Johansson in JOJO RABBIT Florence Pugh in LITTLE WOMEN Margot Robbie in BOMBSHELL

Possible Johansson could upset this, as she won't get (I don't think) the lead award. But Dern was so smarmy in her role, as I said before, I disliked her from the word 'go', so she did her job. 

Best animated feature film of the year nominees: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold I LOST MY BODY Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice KLAUS Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román MISSING LINK Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight TOY STORY 4 Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera

Do you really want to bet against Pixar ?

Achievement in cinematography nominees: THE IRISHMAN Rodrigo Prieto JOKER Lawrence Sher THE LIGHTHOUSE Jarin Blaschke 1917 Roger Deakins ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Robert Richardson 

Hands down - just for the technical aspect. That said, the Lighthouse had a cool look to it. 

Achievement in costume design nominees: THE IRISHMAN Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson JOJO RABBIT Mayes C. Rubeo JOKER Mark Bridges LITTLE WOMEN Jacqueline Durran ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Arianne Phillips 

Throw the girls a bone already. 

Achievement in directing nominees: THE IRISHMAN Martin Scorsese JOKER Todd Phillips 1917 Sam Mendes ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Quentin Tarantino PARASITE Bong Joon Ho

This is one of the two that could do me in. It's going to be my selection or Joon Ho. Either are deserving. I'd be surprised as shit if it were Scorsese or Tarantino. 

Best documentary feature nominees: AMERICAN FACTORY Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert THE CAVE Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjær THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts HONEYLAND Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev 

It's about bees........and I hear we need them to live. So.........sure. 

Best documentary short subject nominees: IN THE ABSENCE Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva LIFE OVERTAKES ME John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson ST. LOUIS SUPERMAN Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan WALK RUN CHA-CHA Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt

It seems like skateboarding girls would scare me, so I don't dare NOT give them the nod. 

Achievement in film editing nominees: FORD V FERRARI Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland THE IRISHMAN Thelma Schoonmaker JOJO RABBIT Tom Eagles JOKER Jeff Groth PARASITE Yang Jinmo

Cut to Damon........then cut to Bale.......and to the to the other car....and back again........and..........

Best international feature film of the year nominees: CORPUS CHRISTI Poland Directed by Jan Komasa HONEYLAND North Macedonia Directed by Ljubo Stefanov and Tamara Kotevksa LES MISÉRABLES France Directed by Ladj Ly PAIN AND GLORY Spain Directed by Pedro Almodóvar PARASITE South Korea Directed by Bong Joon Ho

While I could be wrong on Best Pic, and if Parasite wins that, it could also possibly pick up Foreign Film too. Again, I liked it, but I LOVED Pain and Glory. ...and again, I'd be happy to lose the entire contest here, if Almodóvar picked up this prize.

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling nominees: BOMBSHELL Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker JOKER Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou JUDY Jeremy Woodhead MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White 1917 Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole

I'm going on record saying that the world doesn't need two Megan Kellys. That said, whichever of these three made up Charlize Theron deserves the award for that spot on transformation. 

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) nominees: JOKER Hildur Guðnadóttir LITTLE WOMEN Alexandre Desplat MARRIAGE STORY Randy Newman 1917 Thomas Newman STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER John Williams

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) nominees: "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from TOY STORY 4 Music and Lyric by Randy Newman "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from ROCKETMAN Music by Elton John Lyric by Bernie Taupin "I'm Standing With You" from BREAKTHROUGH Music and Lyric by Diane Warren "Into The Unknown" from FROZEN II Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez "Stand Up" from HARRIET Music and Lyric by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo

Oh you know it's gonna be this big old queen, so he can finally have an Oscar at her Oscar party. 

Best motion picture of the year nominees: FORD V FERRARI Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, Producers THE IRISHMAN Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers JOJO RABBIT Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi, Producers JOKER Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers LITTLE WOMEN Amy Pascal, Producer MARRIAGE STORY Noah Baumbach and David Heyman, Producers 1917 Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, Producers ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, Producers PARASITE Kwak Sin Ae and Bong Joon Ho, Producers

My other possible downfall category. Again, it's coming down to 1917 or Parasite. I'm taking a calculated guess, like Roma last year - the academy will play it safe since they can give Parasite the best foreign film prize. 

Achievement in production design nominees: THE IRISHMAN Production Design: Bob Shaw Set Decoration: Regina Graves JOJO RABBIT Production Design: Ra Vincent Set Decoration: Nora Sopková 1917 Production Design: Dennis Gassner Set Decoration: Lee Sandales ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Production Design: Barbara Ling Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh PARASITE Production Design: Lee Ha Jun Set Decoration: Cho Won Woo

It can't be easy to make LA look 1969 again. But I said something similar a few years ago with Carol and lost my shirt on that one. 

Best animated short film nominees: DCERA (DAUGHTER) Daria Kashcheeva HAIR LOVE Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver KITBULL Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson MEMORABLE Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre SISTER Siqi Song

....because both Mike and I are hair challenged.......though he's in denial. 

Best live action short film nominees: BROTHERHOOD Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon NEFTA FOOTBALL CLUB Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW Marshall Curry SARIA Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre A SISTER Delphine Girard

This is not an educated guess. It's just a guess. 

Achievement in sound editing nominees: FORD V FERRARI Donald Sylvester JOKER Alan Robert Murray 1917 Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Wylie Stateman STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER Matthew Wood and David Acord 

I'm going out on a limb with this one. Vroom vrooom!

Achievement in sound mixing nominees: AD ASTRA Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano FORD V FERRARI Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow JOKER Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland 1917 Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano

...and then swinging back to safe territory with this choice. 

Achievement in visual effects nominees: AVENGERS: ENDGAME Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick THE IRISHMAN Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli THE LION KING Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman 1917 Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy

I think we all know it won't be the Irishman, but with al the others so deep into CGI, you'd think it wouldn't be one of the two that don't look it - which is why it will go to my choice. 

Adapted screenplay nominees: THE IRISHMAN Screenplay by Steven Zaillian JOJO RABBIT Screenplay by Taika Waititi JOKER Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silver LITTLE WOMEN Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig THE TWO POPES Written by Anthony McCarten

I want Jojo to win something! I thought Two Popes was good, if not all fiction. And Little Women? Everyone's whining of Gerwig not getting a director nod. Should she want one, maybe next time not do a movie that has been done 14 times already. The academy might give it to her, but it's purely consolation. I have only seen previews for the Irishman, but correct me if I'm wrong - it's GoodFellas / Casino / Godfather with Italians playing Irish guys - right? 

Original screenplay nominees: KNIVES OUT Written by Rian Johnson MARRIAGE STORY Written by Noah Baumbach 1917 Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD Written by Quentin Tarantino PARASITE Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won Story by Bong Joon Ho

Sorry Sam, 1917 was a good movie, and while not adapted, the story itself was hardly original. Tarantino has two screenplay awards, he won't get three. Knives Out could pull an upset, but I don't think so. Parasite is the most far. 

So, I'd like to thank the Academy for how few digs I took at my competitor in the above section. I should get an award for that.  Maybe two. I dare say, our award chat will bring some snipes (from him about me) and I'll just have to be the mature one here.

But stop back on Tuesday for the recap. I know you're all dying to know. Or perhaps, just dying.

We will see how this goes.

Song by:  R.E.M.


Raybeard said...

I can see that this year the likely winners in most categories will be in a high proportion of films I haven't seen, nor are likely to see. That's just the way it goes, I guess.

As at now I'm still waiting to see if 'Cats' did, in fact, win the Razzie for best-worst film which I think we can pretty well bank on. Sir Andrew L-W will doubtlessly be fuming that he ever allowed it to be filmed, at least in the way it was.

I agree, from those that I've seen, that Banderas should carry the trophy for best actor, but I also think that he won't get it.

Anonymous said...

If my memory serves, I was trounced during last month’s Golden Globes awards ceremony, picking a measly 4 or 5 categories correctly? The shame. The SHAME. So there is plenty riding on this evening’s broadcast. My fragile ego, namely. But hey, it’s all just fun and games. I don’t know why Blobby takes this so seriously and is so mean about things. Just his nature, I supposed.
After countless hours of research and late-night conversations with my sources, I am pleased to submit the following list of winners. May the best man win.
Hey what time do the Oscars start out there in your neck of the woods, Blobby?
Performance by an actor in a leading role nominees: Joaquin Phoenix.
Haven’t seen it, not planning on seeing it. From the previews alone, it looks too dark and violent. Real life is dark enough these days.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role nominees: All the money is on Brad, just so the producers can swoop their camera at Jennifer Aniston’s face during his acceptance speech. Let it go, people. Let it go.

Performance by an actress in a leading role nominees: Renee Zellweger. Hey, at least they’re not gonna give this one to Little Women. Let’s find some solace in that.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role nominees: Laura Dern. I watched Marriage Story until just after Laura Dern’s first scene, and then realized that I didn’t care about any of the characters so i turned it off. Or more honestly, probably flippped channels over to The Great British Baking Show. Might as well learning something if I’m gonna park myself in front of the TV.

Best animated feature film of the year nominees: I’ll go with Klaus, even though I think it’s wrong to make an animated feature out of the story of the rich Newport, Rhode Island socialite who was convicted and later acquitted of trying to kill his wife. Like I need a cartoon about this? Wait. What’s that? Oh, this is actually a Spanish-language film about Santa Claus? Damn. Let’s still go with that. And yes, I really want to bet against Pixar.

Achievement in cinematography nominees: 1917.

Achievement in costume design nominees: I would rather poke my eyes out with a stick than see Little Women take home any gold tonight. But this is a competition, and I’m determined to win, so I’ll go with this sappy period piece. Chicks, man….

Achievement in directing nominees. My man Sam for 1917.

Anonymous said...

Best documentary feature nominees: I’ll stand behind American Factory for the upset.

Best documentary short subject nominees: I’d pay to see Blobby chased down by a swarm of skateboarding girls (I don’t want them to hurt him in any way, just steal his lunch money). But i digress. In this category, I’m picking In the Absence.

Achievement in film editing nominees: Sounds like a movie i’ll never see. But i’ll follow Blobby’s lead on Ford V Ferrari for the win.

Best international feature film of the year nominees. Parasite. All the kids are talking about it.

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling nominees: Bombshell. It would be funny if they had made up Megan Kelly in blackface for this movie. Because as she said, what’s the big deal?

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) nominees: 1917.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) nominees: I’m Gonna Love Me Again. Haha this one make me laugh. I can already the texts coming my way when Sir Elton and his hair pick up this award.

Best motion picture of the year nominees: 1917. So many choices here. And I saw 2 of them. (Well, 2 1/4 if you count the few minutes I endured Marriage Story). i agree with Blobby (cue the jaws dropping) that Parasite will win best foreign film, so it clears the path for Sam Mendes.

Achievement in production design nominees: Seems like i should have gone first here, because it looks like i’m just copying blobby on this one. And while he is a fountain of Hollywood inside knowledge, it just hurts sometimes. Anywhoo— it’s gonna be Once Upon a Time.

Best animated short film nominees: See comment above. Hair Love.

Best live action short film nominees: Here’s where it gets interesting. In honor of the hours that Blobby spends there every day, i’m going with The Neighbor’s Window.

Achievement in sound editing nominees: Hello Blobby? Did you see 1917? Or more importantly, did you HEAR 1917? A dollar side bet says this one will go to 1917.

Achievement in sound mixing nominees: 1917. Such a daring choice.

Achievement in visual effects nominees: OK, here’s my swing vote. I’m going with The Lion King. There. I’ve done it.

Adapted screenplay nominees: JoJo Rabbit. Cuz Blobby says so. And i’m just a little shook with this quote from Blobby: “I thought Two Popes was good.”

Original screenplay nominees: Parasite all the way!

Ur-spo said...

I always for you to win on this