Tuesday, February 04, 2020

Iowa

Iowa.

Why?

The state that for no good reason is so seemingly important to our political process. It is incredible to me that candidates will fall away due to a bunch of hoo-hahs in a state you won't hear about for, well, another four years.

A caucus and ethanol......maybe a corn maze, that's what it's known for. I'm not knocking the state, exactly. I'm just saying it is a lot of weight put into one race. Statistically, it doesn't really pay off either.....for Dems or the big fat stupid, stubborn Elephants.

As of 21:36 EDT the caucus is still going on, so there aren't any leaders as of yet, and well, Blobby needs his beauty rest. So I can't even weigh in on who will be weeded out. Not that it matters, not really.

Going from 1972 - 2016, and not including those candidates running unopposed (i.e. presidents running for re-election) below are some stats for both parties.

Democrats
  • 12 caucuses
  • 11 caucuses with opposition: Kennedy ran against Carter in 1980; Nader ran against Clinton in 1996 
  • 8 of the 11 who won Iowa won the nomination (2 of the 3 others had 'uncommitted' as the Iowa winner. ouch!) - that is 72.7% success rate. In test terms that's a C-. 
  • 3 of those 8 candidates won the general election (Al Gore not withstanding). That is a 37.5%. Grade: F

Republicans
  • 12 caucuses
  • 9 caucuses with opposition; 3 unopposed
  • 3 of 9 the candidates (excluding the unopposed) who won Iowa, won the nomination. That rate?  33.3%.  F-, at best 
  • 1 of those 3 candidates won the general election (Al Gore not withstanding, as it was Shrub who was the winner). 33.3%. See above.
I get that for whatever reason, the $$$$ dries up a bit if one doesn't show well in Iowa, but a 34% win didn't help Mike Fuckabee win the nomination, and the 13% that eventual nominee McCain won, well.....didn't do him any good either.

Of course, I'm still baffled by how one 'scream' in from Howard Dean sunk his campaign.



Song by: Dar Williams

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Please don't dismiss Iowa. We are not a bunch of uninformed idiots. We take the process seriously. And we are not a bunch of hicks. So there.

Blobby said...

I didn't mock the people per se, but you gotta admit, the events of the last 24 hours doesn't bode well for the state.....or some of the people.